1. The new political reality has moved the Sky Shield Initiative into the strategic mainstream
The drone strike on Poland on 10 September 2025 has changed the perception of the threat Russia poses to Europe. Russian invasion into a NATO member state is no longer unthinkable, hence a real possibility of contact kinetic war with the aggressor state must be very seriously considered.
To prevent the worst scenario, de-escalation through deterrence must be employed. Since Putin carefully calculates his steps in escalating threats, facing stiffer resistance than expected may change his assessment. This mechanism was successfully demonstrated by Ukraine as early as 2003 during the conflict at Tuzla Island, when a resolute reaction postponed the Russian invasion for more than 10 years.
Lack of decisive action against Putin’s unmanned threats (e.g., drones and cruise missiles) will encourage him to extend his applicable toolbox to manned combat aircraft and ground forces, which will be the point of no return for full-scale invasion.
2. Ukraine is the only ally Europe has for its protection
After more than 11 years of warfare, Ukraine is the only ally Europe can realistically count on. Ukraine’s Armed Forces possess the grit, expertise, and capacity to fight Putin’s war machine efficiently on a large scale. This capacity cannot be replicated simply by spending more on defence. It is not beneficial for Europe’s security to allow Ukraine to be weakened.
Ukrainian Armed Forces fought tens of thousands of anti-aircraft, anti-missile, and anti-drone engagements over thousands of anti-air battles encompassing hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. No force in the world comes close to Ukraine’s capacity to fight this type of air war in a cost-efficient manner. Ukrainian instructors have already been sent to Poland to train and mentor Polish forces, but a paradigm shift will not happen overnight and is likely to take years.
Despite the aptness of Ukraine’s defence, the damage to Ukrainian capacities is compounding due to the sheer scale of Russian strikes. Attacks in the size of 100+ drones and several missiles are conducted every day, which, even with 80%+ efficiency demonstrated by Ukraine’s defences, adds up to much destruction.
European Coalition’s air forces taking responsibility for protecting the safest areas of Ukraine in its western part will not only preemptively protect Polish and Europe’s airspace, but they will also help Ukraine to do its job of safeguarding Europe in a more efficient manner.
3. Practical implementation: in phase lines
The most practical way to achieve de-escalation through deterrence is to build up and spread Operation Eastern Sentry from Poland into Ukraine in 5 phase lines, gradually reinforcing the Coalition’s air forces to 120 combat aircraft while building their C4ISR and logistical capacities.
Step-by-step buildup over the course of several months will allow for a gradual decrease of tensions, as the Russian political leadership will get used to the idea that an invasion of Europe is not tenable or practical. The Coalition’s standard operating procedures and rules of engagement can be adapted to a chaotic reality, naturally transferring combat experience from the new kind of technological war currently being waged by Ukraine.
The merger of Operation Eastern Sentry and the Sky Shield Initiative will protect Europe at a considerable distance from its borders, in turn strengthening Ukraine in its resistance to the Russian aggressor.